How Ebook Buyers Discover Books

Most writers write to get read, so how do readers discover ebooks?

To discover clues to the answer, I posted a survey over at Mobileread, the online forum popular with many ebook readers.

I challenged readers to select the single most common criterion they follow to discover their next read.

The results provide some interesting data points Smashwords authors and publishers might consider in their marketing efforts.

To capture a broad range of usable data, I suggested 12 answers, one of which was "Other." Respondents were allowed to select one answer only since I wanted to identify the single most important discovery criteria.

As of this writing, 206 people answered the survey. Click the image to enlarge it.

Key findings, plus my observations:

1. The most-selected answer was "Recommendations from fellow readers on online message forums, blogs and message boards," with 29% of respondents choosing this. By contrast, only 4% selected, "Personal friend/family member recommends it to me." I think this is fascinating, because it implies readers might trust the collective wisdom of strangers and online acquaintances more than they trust the recommendations of immediate friends and family. At the risk of placing too many eggs in this basket, remember 71% selected something else.

2. The second most common answer was, "I look first for my favorite authors," coming in at 18%. This makes sense. As I mention when I present my Seven Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success talk, the author is the brand and if the author can earn the trust and loyalty of readers, readers will return to that brand for their next read. Readers in this group may also be more risk-averse. One respondent commented, "I'm at a point in life where I mostly stick with authors I already know and like. Why waste time and money on something I may not like?"

3. I found it interesting that the top two answers accounted for 47% of responses, with the other 53% of answers fragmented across ten other answers. This implies, I think, that in order for authors to reach the maximum number of readers, it requires them to orchestrate multiple touch points.

4. Several answers indicate buyers prefer a random discovery approach. Readers like to browse. Taken in the aggregate, random browsing rivals the single largest discovery method, with over 25% of respondents. The following are all random browsing methods: I browse book covers, and if it grabs me I investigate further (7%); I browse randomly then look at reviews (7%); I read free ebooks, and if I like the authors I buy their other titles (5%); I browse paper books at brick and mortar bookstores, then search for the ebook online (4%); I'll sample anything, and if it grabs me I'll download/buy it (4%). Most other answers involve some element of random browsing.

5. The Mobileread community has apparently abandoned traditional print media as their first choice for reviews and recommendations, with only 3% citing this as their preferred book discovery method. This isn't surprising, considering Mobileread is a hyper-focused community dedicated to e-reading. It's not representative of the entire population of book buyers. However, I think Mobileread does serve as a leading indicator of how consumer sentiment will change once readers make the transition to e-reading. Looking at the answers in aggregate, it's clear that over 90% of ebook discovery is occurring in the online realm.

6. I was surprised only 3% of respondents looked first to the bestseller lists, which scored just as poorly as print media reviews. Possibly it's a flaw in how I structured the survey. I was also surprised that retailer recommendations, such as the "people who bought this bought that," scored only 5%. Maybe if I asked, "Name the top three methods you use for discovery," these would have scored higher.

7. The "Other" answers, where I invited Mobilereaders to leave comments and elaborate, elicited 11% of responses. Judging from their comments, several of them found it difficult to choose a single favorite discovery method (in other words, they didn't follow the survey instructions which asked them to choose their #1). Of those who provided true "other" answers, several mentioned they discover books at libraries, or select primarily by title or book description (I should have included these as a survey options).

What to make of the results? How might authors and publishers focus their e-publishing efforts based on the data above? I think it boils down to the following:

• Write a great book that resonates with readers and gives them something to talk about
  
• Target readers who are active in online communities because they influence their fellow readers (The Smashwords Book Marketing Guide provides 30 online marketing ideas)
  
• Maximize the availability of your book so readers can randomly stumble across it and sample it
• Boring titles, unprofessional cover images and poorly written book descriptions are instant turn-offs

Do the findings above match your experience as a reader or author?

Where U.S. Ebook Buyers Live

Have you ever wondered where the most voracious ebook readers live? Probably not.

It's a fun question, though, and for the first time ever I present the data to you.

I set out to determine which states ebook buyers live in, and then I wanted to know how the states stack up against one another.

The numbers are surprising, especially when you look at per capita consumption.

Here's how I pulled together the numbers below. Smashwords distributes over 20,000 ebooks to Barnes & Noble. They report to us a breakdown of sales by state. I summed up all Smashwords sales, broken down by state, from Barnes & Noble for the three month period of December, 2010 through February, 2011. Next, I divided each state's sales by the sum of the total to determine the percentage of all ebooks sales from each state. Then I added US population data from the latest US census. Next, I determined what percent of the US population lives in each state. Finally, to determine the how states rank against each other on ebook sales, I normalized the data on a per capita basis. I did this by dividing each state's percentage of overall sales they represent by the percentage of the US population they represent. Dizzy yet? This gave me the final, coolest numbers of them all, a normalized measure of per capita ebook consumption for each state.

So here's the first set of data, where I look at which states generate the highest (and lowest) overall sales. Obviously, the states with the largest populations are likely to purchase the most ebooks.

US States, Ranked by Aggregate Ebook Purchases
Source: Smashwords data

Rank	State	Percentage of US Ebook Sales
1	TX	8.57%
2	CA	7.99%
3	NY	5.99%
4	FL	5.93%
5	PA	4.13%
6	IL	3.90%
7	VA	3.62%
8	NC	3.36%
9	OH	3.16%
10	MI	3.12%
11	GA	2.88%
12	WA	2.81%
13	NJ	2.77%
14	IN	2.46%
15	MO	2.40%
16	AZ	2.26%
17	CO	2.09%
18	MN	2.07%
19	MA	2.04%
20	WI	1.91%
21	MD	1.91%
22	SC	1.78%
23	TN	1.63%
24	LA	1.52%
25	AL	1.45%
26	UT	1.44%
27	OK	1.38%
28	OR	1.35%
29	IA	1.33%
30	KY	1.31%
31	CT	1.13%
32	KS	1.09%
33	AR	0.98%
34	NV	0.83%
35	MS	0.72%
36	AK	0.66%
37	NE	0.66%
38	ID	0.65%
39	NM	0.65%
40	NH	0.61%
41	ND	0.48%
42	WV	0.45%
43	MT	0.42%
44	RI	0.37%
45	HI	0.32%
46	ME	0.32%
46	SD	0.29%
48	DE	0.29%
49	WY	0.26%
50	VT	0.20%
51	DC	0.09%

Now here's where it gets really interesting. Let's look at per capita consumption. Take a look at the Ebook Per Capita Sales Ratio column. This is how each state stacks up against the others, adjusted for population. Alaska, which ranks #47 in terms of overall population, ranks #1 for per capita ebook purchases measured by dollar volume. With a score of 2.92, this means they purchase 292% of the per capita than the average state, or almost triple the national average. A score of 100% means average, 200% means double the average, etc. So as you see, Alaska, North Dakota and Utah round out the top three, and Mississippi, California and the District of Columbia round out the bottom three. My home state of California, really?

Per Capita Ebook Consumption
Source: Smashwords data

Rank	State	Ebook Per Capita Sales Ratio	Percentage of US Ebook Sales	State Pop	US Pop	% US Pop
1	AK	2.92	0.66%	698,473	307,006,550	0.23%
2	ND	2.29	0.48%	646,844	307,006,550	0.21%
3	UT	1.58	1.44%	2,784,572	307,006,550	0.91%
4	WY	1.44	0.26%	544,270	307,006,550	0.18%
5	VA	1.41	3.62%	7,882,590	307,006,550	2.57%
6	NH	1.41	0.61%	1,324,575	307,006,550	0.43%
7	IA	1.36	1.33%	3,007,856	307,006,550	0.98%
8	MT	1.32	0.42%	974,989	307,006,550	0.32%
9	ID	1.30	0.65%	1,545,801	307,006,550	0.50%
10	WA	1.29	2.81%	6,664,195	307,006,550	2.17%
11	CO	1.28	2.09%	5,024,748	307,006,550	1.64%
12	MO	1.23	2.40%	5,987,580	307,006,550	1.95%
13	MN	1.20	2.07%	5,266,214	307,006,550	1.72%
14	SC	1.20	1.78%	4,561,242	307,006,550	1.49%
15	KS	1.18	1.09%	2,818,747	307,006,550	0.92%
16	IN	1.18	2.46%	6,423,113	307,006,550	2.09%
17	OK	1.15	1.38%	3,687,050	307,006,550	1.20%
18	NE	1.12	0.66%	1,796,619	307,006,550	0.59%
19	SD	1.10	0.29%	812,383	307,006,550	0.26%
20	NC	1.10	3.36%	9,380,884	307,006,550	3.06%
21	OR	1.08	1.35%	3,825,657	307,006,550	1.25%
22	RI	1.07	0.37%	1,053,209	307,006,550	0.34%
23	TX	1.06	8.57%	24,782,302	307,006,550	8.07%
24	AZ	1.05	2.26%	6,595,778	307,006,550	2.15%
25	AR	1.04	0.98%	2,889,450	307,006,550	0.94%
26	WI	1.04	1.91%	5,654,774	307,006,550	1.84%
27	LA	1.04	1.52%	4,492,076	307,006,550	1.46%
28	MD	1.03	1.91%	5,699,478	307,006,550	1.86%
29	PA	1.01	4.13%	12,604,767	307,006,550	4.11%
30	VT	1.00	0.20%	621,760	307,006,550	0.20%
31	DE	0.99	0.29%	885,122	307,006,550	0.29%
32	CT	0.99	1.13%	3,518,288	307,006,550	1.15%
33	NM	0.99	0.65%	2,009,671	307,006,550	0.65%
34	FL	0.98	5.93%	18,537,969	307,006,550	6.04%
35	NJ	0.98	2.77%	8,707,739	307,006,550	2.84%
36	NV	0.96	0.83%	2,643,085	307,006,550	0.86%
37	MI	0.96	3.12%	9,969,727	307,006,550	3.25%
38	MA	0.95	2.04%	6,593,587	307,006,550	2.15%
39	AL	0.94	1.45%	4,708,708	307,006,550	1.53%
40	NY	0.94	5.99%	19,541,453	307,006,550	6.37%
41	KY	0.93	1.31%	4,314,113	307,006,550	1.41%
42	IL	0.93	3.90%	12,910,409	307,006,550	4.21%
43	GA	0.90	2.88%	9,829,211	307,006,550	3.20%
44	OH	0.84	3.16%	11,542,645	307,006,550	3.76%
45	TN	0.80	1.63%	6,296,254	307,006,550	2.05%
46	HI	0.77	0.32%	1,295,178	307,006,550	0.42%
46	WV	0.76	0.45%	1,819,777	307,006,550	0.59%
48	ME	0.75	0.32%	1,318,301	307,006,550	0.43%
49	MS	0.75	0.72%	2,951,996	307,006,550	0.96%
50	CA	0.66	7.99%	36,961,664	307,006,550	12.04%
51	DC	0.46	0.09%	599,657	307,006,550	0.20%

A good statistician (and I don't claim to be one - I earned a D+ in statistics at UC Berkeley, and after retaking the class I earned a B-, nothing to brag about so I won't), I should poke some holes in my data. This data only looks at sales through Barnes & Noble. It doesn't take into account the geographic distribution of B&N's physical stores (this might impact where they've sold nooks, which would then impact customer counts). It doesn't take into consideration B&N's market share in each state. It doesn't take into consideration the age, sex, per capita income levels or language breakdowns of each state's population, or the penetration of broadband or dial-up access. I don't disclose the total number of books represented by these three months of sales, or the aggregate sales value, or the average price per book, or the category of book sold. We're a private company, so we don't disclose these numbers (though I can tell you it's a statistically significant number).

I published my raw data online over at the Smashwords Slideshare channel. I invite the true statisticians among you to download my numbers as a starting point for further number crunching. For example, the US Census Data page, where I gathered the population data, has other interesting data sets you can throw against my data, such as median household income, age of population (under 18, over 65), college education, home ownership rates, etc., so I encourage others to mine the data for more meaning. All I ask is that you reference Smashwords as the source of the data and link back to the blog (oh, and please encourage your favorite authors to publish and distribute with Smashwords! Okay, that's optional). Also email me links to your analysis and I'll link to it below so others can enjoy your findings.


Graphic partially produced at Wordle.